Dec. 25th, 2010

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So I thought some more about starting a blog of amusing observations and essays about (mostly modern) naming trends. And I thought about starting up a new blog for it on some place like blogspot or the like. And then I thought, "I've got a perfectly good blog here on LiveJournal and I'm more and more saving it for essays (and putting the chit-chat on Facebook instead) so it makes more sense just to do it here." But I also want to store the essays somewhere I have complete control over -- i.e., my website. So here's how it's going to work. I'll post the name blogs here on LJ so people can comment and discuss if they want (and also for better publicity), but I'll also post them on my website for the permanent record. Depending on storage space, some of the essays may end up being teasers with a pointer to the website version. (For example, the one I'm about to post has a number of short embedded videos and I'm not sure of the logistics of doing so here.)

So the first (well, actually the second -- because I already posted the LaTrina rant and essay) will be an extended discussion of the recent fashion for boys' names that rhyme with Aidan. I started writing this several years ago but updated it for the more recent data and finished up all the graphs and trend-videos and whatnot. I've never embedded a video before! It'll be going up in five parts, of which the last is still in progress, so it'll come a little later.
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For all that baby name resources make a big deal out of the origins and meanings of names, it can’t be denied that many names are chosen more for the sound than the specific origin. Oh, parents may deny that’s what they’re doing, and individual names are always chosen partly for individual reasons, but an underlying truth comes out in the statistics. Certain sounds, sound-patterns, and spellings show the same overall fashions and falls from grace that names themselves do. A particularly striking case currently is that of names rhyming with Aidan. (This essay deals primarily with boys' names. Unless gender is specifically discussed, assume that all statements apply only to the masculine version.)

 

Although much of the point of this essay is that the fad for Aidan-rhymes is independent of the specific names involved, let’s start by looking at the history of that name.

Once upon a time, there was an Irish masculine given name Aodhán. (It comes from the root aodh meaning “fire” – which is often the meaning listed in baby-name books for variants of this name. In fact, Aodh itself is also an Irish masculine given name, but it didn’t emigrate quite as readily.) Now back in the very early middle ages, this name was written Aedán and pronounced roughly something like AY-than. And – it being the middle ages – a lot of the time people wrote the name down in Latin, changing it to fit the rules of Latin spelling, where it became Aidan(us). This is important, because when the name was revived much later outside Ireland, people often encountered it in the Latin form and used that spelling as a starting point.

Time passed, and the spelling of the Irish name shifted to Aedhán and then to Aodhán, and the pronunciation also shifted to something more like AY-yan (as you can hear in the surname "MacKeane" or "MacKane" which derives from this given name).

Now we need to skip to more modern times and a new interest in older Irish names and in “Celtic” names in general. (I may do an essay on the topic of “Celtic” names sometime in the future.) For a variety of reasons (and we could speculate on a few of them) the most popular spelling of the name in its revival was “Aidan”, taken from the Latinized form, which modern English speakers naturally pronounced as if it were an English name with that spelling – i.e., as “AY-dan”. The name first became re-popularized in Ireland, and in the British Isles more generally, starting around 1900 (see the Wikipedia article on the name for a selection of examples) but I'm interested specifically in the fate of the name in the USA.

In studying name trends in the U.S., I've made heavy use of two invaluable resources: the Social Security Administration registration data and the Babyname Wizard site which processes this data in various useful ways. (I'm also using a database based on the SSA data that I set up when working on Baby Names for Dummies that enables me to pull together the various spellings of the same root name, or names matching a particular pattern, or various other topics of interest.)

Aidan first becomes visible on the SSA charts in 1990 at #889 (0.3 out of every 1000 boys). It creeps up in popularity slowly at first, joined in 1995 by the spelling Aiden. But then something happens in 1998: both Aidan and the group of names as a whole start more than doubling in popularity every two years. New spelling variants start appearing more often: Ayden in 1999, Aden in 2000, Aydan in 2003, Aydin in 2004, Adin and Aedan in 2005. (There’s also the name Adan which had been showing up sporadically since the early 20th century. It isn’t technically a variant of Aidan, but it seems to have hitched a ride on the popularity boost in the last couple of years as a sound-alike.) By 2005, Aidan and Aiden are both in the mid 40s in the rankings, and the whole group of spellings put together are given to 11.7 boys out of every 1000.

Popularity graph for spellings of Aidan

But this isn’t where the story ends. If you look at the last few years of popular boys’ names, you start noticing an increasing number of names moving up the charts that rhyme with Aidan, even though they’re completely unrelated in origin. In addition to Aidan (if we’re including Adan in that group), we find Caden, Braydon, Hayden, Jaden (all in a variety of spellings) -- and when I first started writing this article in 2006 I came up with a list of other possible rhymes, of which Raiden and Zayden/Zaiden have now also made the charts. If you look at the rise in popularity of these name groups over time, they all show a startlingly simultaneous and steady rise in popularity starting in 1999.

Here's the rise of these name-groups (where all spellings for a particular sound are added together).

Popularity of names rhyming with Aidan

While newcomers like Raiden and Zayden may well be inventions driven solely by the fashion for this rhyme-group, the other names all have independent origins -- often several different origins, bound only by a similarity of sound. We've discussed the origins of Aidan, so let's look at the other groups in detail, in decreasing order of popularity.

To be continued in Part II

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Jaden

There are several possible sources for this name. There is a Biblical Jadon in the Book of Nehemiah but this spelling is a late-comer to the fashion, making it less likely as an origin. There is a French surname Jadin (probably from an occupational surname meaning "seller of bowls and pans" -- Dauzat), but in addition to the problem that this spelling never gets into the top 1000, it doesn't seem to have been a significant surname in the U.S. For the most part, the Jaden group seems to have been coined for the sound, or composed from elements taken from other popular names, such as Jay or Jason. Another component to this name is the general popularity of names of the form "CVCVC" (where C=consonant and V=vowel) ... but that's a topic for another column.

The Jaden group first shows up on the charts in 1994 as Jaden and Jayden and adds more variants rapidly: Jadon in 1998, Jaiden and Jaydon in 1999, Jaeden in 2000, Jadyn in 2001, and Jaidyn and Jaydin in 2004. All together they make up 7.9 out of every 1000 boys names in 2005. As with Aidan, there’s a sharp increase in popularity starting after 1998 to go along with the increase in spelling variants.

Attested spelling variants that haven't made the charts include Jaidon, Jadan, and Jadin.

relative popularity of spellings of Jayden

Behind a cut due to heavy graphic content. )

To be continued in Part III

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How far does this Aidan-momentum reach in terms of names with a similar sound but not an exact rhyme? I looked at five names that differed either in having a "t" rather than a "d" (Clayton, Dayton, Layton, Payton, and Treyton) and at a group of names that are similar to the Aidan group except for having plain "a" or "e" at the beginning (Adan, Aden, Adin, and Eden).

Clayton has been mildly popular during the entire period covered by the SSI data. From the 1880s through the first decade of the 1900s it hovered around 200th in popularity for boys, crept up to #149 in 1919, declined through the mid century (although never lower than #266), had a second peak of popularity at #149 in 1994 then has been falling steadily since then.

Dayton had a fairly low presence on the charts in the early 20th century then disappeared until the '90s when it gains a low but fairly steady presence with no noticeable change around 1998.

Layton first shows up on the chart in 2001 and has been steady ever since.

Payton (in the spellings Payton and Peyton) first shows up at the beginning of the '90s and rises steadily in popularity, although not to the level of the true Aidan-rhyme names. (Payton has a very similar popularity curve for girls and is somewhat more popular in that context.)

Treyton has a brief blip at the bottom of the chart in 2002-2003 but never gains any traction.

Eden has only had a very minor blip in the last couple of years. But the Adan/Aden/Adin group shows the same profile as the main Aidan-rhyme names: Adan itself has been holding steady (in the 400s-500s of the rankings) since the mid-20th century but after 1998 it takes off, relatively speaking, Adding Aden to the chart in 2000 and Adin in 2005. The increase in popularity is nowhere near to the same degree as Aidan itself, though.

So of these names in the next rank of similarity, only the Adan group seems to benefit from and participate in the Aidan fashion. Payton is the only other of these name-groups that is on a rising trend in the same period, but it doesn't show the 1998 effect.

relative popularity or names rhyming with Clayton

As we can see in the cumulative graph above, there may be some indication in the 2009 data that the fashion is starting to fade. 2009 was the first year in a decade where the rate of increase leveled out. The four most popular name-groups (Aidan, Jayden, Caden, and Braydon) are all flat between 2008 and 2009, and Haydon has been declining for two years. Only the two most recent additions to the chart (Raiden and Zaiden) increased in 2009.

So if we wanted to make some predictions for the future, it might be safe to suggest that all the more popular groups will continue to decline, although individual names may still be on an upward arc. The pair Kayden/Cayden still seems to have some juice despite not being at the top of their group. And it might also be safe to predict that we'll see some other Aidan-rhymes make it onto the charts, driven by the overall momentum (as Raiden and Zaiden have since the time I first made this prediction). But which ones? We're unlikely to see initial sounds that aren't "normal" in men's names used in the U.S. and we might expect the overall popularity of certain initial sounds to make some Aidan-rhymes more or less likely. So let's start by looking at the distribution of initial consonants and consonant clusters in the names that have made the chart at some time in the last century or so (a total of about 2600 different names and spelling variants). Leaving out combinations that only occur in variants of a single, non-English name (such as Dmitrii), here are the relative numbers for each distinct spelling that has made the chart at some point. In each case, I've followed it by a suggestion of an Aidan-rhyme name beginning with those letters and commentary on known usage. (I've focused on the two most common spellings "-aden" and "-ayden" when searching for uses.) Names already discussed in this article are in bold.

Table of possible Aidan-rhyme names
Initial # of Names Spellings Possible Names Comments
D 232 Dayden Possibly pre-empted by Dayton.
J 230 Jayden  
M 178 Maiden Not likely, especially for a boy's name! But various spellings of this occur as surnames and except for the meaning over-ride there would be no reason it might not have been turned into a given name.
R 166 Raiden  
K 129 Kaden  
L 126 Layden Possibly pre-empted by Layton.
C 108 Caden  
H 98 Hayden  
G 88 Gayden Possibly blocked by discomfort about names containing "gay", however there is a surname Gayden and place-name Gaydon that are available as starting points.
T 83 Tayden Possible -- anecdotal evidence on the web shows that this is being used already as a boy's name.
B 80 Bayden Possible -- web searches turn up both Bayden and Baden as surnames and given names.
W 67 Wayden Possible, especially motivated by the given name Wade. There's a surname Wayden, but the most common web hit for it is for a sponsor of a curling (sports) tournament.
Br 63 Brayden  
S 62 Sayden Possibly blocked by the similarity to "Satan"?
N 61 Nayden Possibly pre-empted by Nathan? But Nayden appears to be a common transliteration of a Slavic form of Nathan and it shows up in the US as a surname, so you never know.
V 37 Vayden Possible -- anecdotal evidence on the web shows that this is being used already as a boy's name.
P 35 Payden Possibly pre-empted by Payton.
Tr 33 Trayden Possibly pre-empted by Treyton.
Ch 31 Chayden Possible -- anecdotal evidence on the web shows that this is being used already as a boy's name and there are examples of Chaden as a surname.
F 29 Faden Faden and Fayden show up as surnames (possibly as variants of MacFadden) but the only anecdotal evidence I've found for Fayden as a given name appears to be for girls, probably due to association with Fay(e).
Cl 28 Clayden Possibly pre-empted by Clayton. There is a surname Clayden, though.
Sh 24 Shayden Possible -- anecdotal evidence on the web shows that this is being used given name although the gender isn't clear.
Fr 22 Frayden Possible -- there appears to be a surname Frayden and I've found at least one given name example, although from the early 20th century rather than recently.
St 22 Stayden Possible -- web searches turn up a surname Stayden.
Z 22 Zaiden  
Gr 17 Grayden There's a surname Graydon, sometimes used as a given name, but it hasn't made the charts yet. Other possible spelling variants turn up as surnames and place names. This one's quite likely.
Th 12 Thayden No serious hits on this one.
Cr 9 Craydon Craydon is a surname and occasional given name. This one's quite possible.
Y 9 Yaden My gut instinct says this is unlikely.
Fl 7 Flayden Not impossible, but there's no surname of this sound to give it a starting point.
Kr 7 Krayden Possibly as a variant of Craydon.
Bl 6 Blayden Blayden is found as a surname, Blaydon as a place-name, and Bladon exists as a place-name and surname and occasional given name from the surname. This is a definite possibility.
Qu 6 Quayden Possible, especially motivated by Quaid (which itself isn't on the charts, though). Quaydon shows up as a surname and there seem to be some hits for Quayden as a given name, gender unclear.
Gl 5 Glayden Possible -- anecdotal evidence on the web shows that this is being used already as a boy's name.
Pr 5 Prayden Possible -- anecdotal evidence on the web shows that this is being used already as a boy's name.
Sc 5 Scayden Maybe, but the Sc- and Sk- spellings are pretty much restricted to variants of specific names (Scott for the first and Skyler for the second). This makes these spellings less likely to generate new names.
Kh 4 Khayden Possibly as a spelling variant for Caden but only if someone were working really hard on an exotic look.
Ph 4 Phayden My gut says unlikely unless Faden establishes itself first.
Dr 3 Drayden Possible. There's a place-name Drayden, alternately there's an even more common place-name and surname Drayton which might pre-empt it.
X 3 Xayden Possibly as a spelling variant for Zaiden.
Rh 2 Rhayden Possibly as a spelling variant for Raiden.
Sk 2 Skayden See notes under Scayden.
Sp 2 Spayden Unlikely for the same reason as Sc-/Sk- : initial Sp- is pretty much associated with a single name and its variants (Spenser).
Wh 2 Whedon A surname, currently especially familiar from TV producer Joss Whedon. It's possible this might get picked up.
Sl 1 Slayden Slayden can be found as a surname and place-name.
Sm 1 Smayden My gut says no.

What's the take-home message from this table? Well, the rhyme-names that begin with the most common initial letter(s) are, for the most part, ones that are already showing up in the top 1000 charts. Exceptions tend to be for names where the close-rhyme name exists and is popular (e.g., Dayton, Layton) or where the result is an ordinary word with a meaning that would interfere (e.g., maiden). The data here also illustrates something that is often forgotten by people who complain about "made up names": the reason some combinations of sounds get "invented" as names is because these are sound combinations that we're already used to hearing as names. And there are a LOT of uncommon place-names and surnames out there that are just as reasonable to adopt as given names as the ones we're already familiar with. The majority of the possible "inventions" for new Aidan-rhyme names (i.e., ones that fit the sound-patterns of existing English names) already exist as place-names or surnames (or even as occasional given names), whether or not someone choosing that rhyme-name for their baby is aware of the pre-existing names.

So what are my predictions for the next Aidan-rhyme to hit the charts? Tayden is a possibility but it strikes my ear as a bit odd so I'll skip it. (Mind you, my instinct isn't all that sound -- I wouldn't have predicted Raiden.) Vayden seems a likely possibility and I'd love to see Grayden/Graydon get picked up. Blayden also seems quite likely. I could see Craydon hitching a ride as well.

To be continued in Part IV

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ETA: This is my first experiment with posting videos and I still have some troubleshooting to do. The videos are Quick-Time format but I don't have the advisory apparatus to tell people they need Quick-Time to view them. Please bear with my learning curve. Feedback in the comments on what systems/programs are able to view the videos or not may be useful. Sorry about this.

Further ETA: I have a confirmed success on a Windows machine running Firefox 3.6.12 and with QuickTime installed. And a confirmed failure on a Windows machine running Internet Explorer with no QuickTime installed. I suspect that the key difference is simply whether QuickTime is installed. (Duh!) I'll see if I can add a built-in message to that effect. It may be that I should look into Flash eventually, unless a better idea comes along.


Looking at the rise of all these name-groups in parallel, all starting to shoot up at roughly the same time, you'd think that they're all part of some single fashion, ruled by the rhyme. But when you look at how each individual name spreads geographically, something even more curious happens. The geographic data is taken from the Babyname Wizard "name mapper". In this case, it plots the relative popularity of a name in each of the 50 states, but only for names appearing in the 100 most popular for that state. So some of the spelling variants that show up in our top 1000 list for the entire USA never make the cut-off for the map. I'm going to oversimplify a bit by charting a simple "yes/no" for each state and leaving off Alaska and Hawaii (not because they aren't interesting, but because I'm looking at a more big-picture trend).

Behind a cut due to heavy video content. )

To be concluded in Part V

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